By: Ricardo Abud
The November midterm elections are shaping up to be much more than a simple dispute over seats in the United States Congress, transforming into a political trial about the direction of Donald Trump's second term and, at the same time, into the intimate reckoning that each family makes when they do the math and realize that money is no longer enough.
The economy has become the real battleground not because of what the indicators say, but because public perception surpasses any statistics; while Washington points to a moderation in the inflation rate, households live with high bills to buy food, pay rent, fill the car tank, cover electricity, insurance and medicines, perpetuating a feeling of loss of purchasing power.
In this scenario, gasoline has a particular psychological dimension due to its constant visibility at every service station, a cost aggravated by a conflict with Iran that demonstrates how a foreign policy decision directly impacts more expensive transportation, expensive food, and greater uncertainty.
Adding to this financial malaise is a decisive and unforeseeable factor: the operations and controversy surrounding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which has ceased to be a simple discussion about immigration and has become a national debate about the limits of federal authority and the power of the State within communities.
National polls reflect strong disapproval of the agency and its enforcement methods, demonstrating that this rejection extends beyond the traditional Democratic Party base and reaches moderate and independent voters, as well as communities that question the visible arrests and confrontations. While a significant portion of the country supports a strict border policy, tolerance for certain operational tactics has declined sharply following tragic events and questionable operations.
For Republicans, this paradox represents a latent electoral risk, since while it mobilizes their most loyal electorate, it also encourages the participation of Democrats, young people, and independent voters whose intensity of rejection could tip the balance in key districts.
The economic and migratory pulse is closely intertwined with a tense and volatile international landscape. Inflation, which reached 4.2% in May, driven by rising energy costs stemming from the trade war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, has had a profound impact on people's finances. Although prices registered slight declines in July, followed by renewed diplomatic tensions, the electorate is feeling the effects of the instability.
In foreign policy, the January military operation that culminated in the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela was the most significant action of the presidency, but the promise to manage a safe transition faces the natural wear and tear of prolonged processes, becoming a point of criticism for the opposition, which questions the true costs of the intervention. Similarly, the situation with Iran remains unresolved: the Geneva agreement and subsequent rounds of sanctions reflect a scenario where reopening the conflict would reignite popular discontent, while stabilization would allow the White House to capitalize on it as a leadership victory.
Current polls anticipate a highly contested race, reflecting widespread disapproval of the president's performance and a legislative preference for Democrats in prediction markets, although the electoral map, narrowed by redistricting, limits the number of truly competitive seats. A Republican defeat in one or both houses of Congress would force Trump to negotiate under extraordinarily intense political pressure, potentially altering legislative oversight of military funding, sanctions, and policy toward Venezuela and Iran.
However, a Democratic victory would not guarantee immediate economic solutions or a straightforward approach, since energy priorities could lead to pragmatic trade relations with Caracas to lower gasoline prices, while a sector of society punishes the ruling party driven more by weariness and the search for stability than by ideological adherence.
Ultimately, the November verdict will hinge on a fundamental and profoundly human question: whether political power is making the daily lives of ordinary people more bearable or more difficult, demonstrating that no statistic or campaign strategy can completely save a government that loses this emotional battle.
Note: More practical scenarios for the midterm elections
1. Democrats win the House : a very possible scenario if economic malaise continues.
2. Divided Congress: Democrats control the House and Republicans retain the Senate. This would be one of the most likely scenarios.
3. Democratic wave: Democrats regain control of the House and Senate. This would be the biggest political blow to Trump.
4. Republicans retain Congress: possible if the economy improves before the elections and Trump manages to mobilize his base again.
5. Economic punishment: inflation, gasoline, employment and cost of living become the main reason to vote against the Republicans.
6. Immigration and ICE punishment: a perception of excesses, abuses or lack of control can lead to loss of support in competitive districts.
7. Foreign policy as a factor of attrition: a military escalation or a prolonged intervention, including in Venezuela, can generate rejection if citizens perceive that Trump is dedicating resources and attention to the outside world while internal problems remain.
8. Most likely outcome: Republican loss of the House, highly contested Senate, and significant political weakening of Trump, even if Republicans manage to retain one of the two chambers.
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