By: Ricardo Abud
A tearful Iranian state television presenter announced the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled for 36 years, at 5 a.m. local time on Sunday. The Iranian government declared 40 days of official mourning.
The Revolutionary Guard also confirmed his death with a heart-wrenching statement: "We have lost our great leader and we mourn him. His martyrdom at the hands of the most terrible terrorists is a symbol of his virtue." It called on "all sectors of society to demonstrate their national unity and cohesion in national defense."
The Fars news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard, also confirmed that Khamenei's daughter, son-in-law, daughter-in-law, and grandchildren were killed in the attacks. An entire family wiped out in a single blow. Khamenei died at the age of 86 in his office while "carrying out his duties" at the time of the attack, according to state television, which emphasized that this "proved that he was always at the forefront of his responsibilities."
What Trump and Netanyahu celebrate as a historic victory, much of the world analyzes with deep concern: assassinating the supreme leader of a sovereign state of 90 million inhabitants opens a chasm of unpredictable consequences.
The first mistake the US and Israel may be making is believing that Khamenei's death will bring down the Iranian regime. History and recent events suggest quite the opposite.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed that a "severe, decisive, and regrettable punishment" was coming for the assassination of Khamenei, promising "the most intense offensive operation ever seen" against Israel and US bases in the Middle East.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that the assassination "will not go unanswered." Far from capitulating, the Iranian regime is responding with the language of martyrdom, an ideological tool that has extraordinary mobilizing power in Shiite culture. Khamenei did not die as a fugitive dictator: he died in his office, performing his duties. In the Iranian narrative, this makes him a symbol.
They reveal who will temporarily assume leadership in Iran: The president, the head of the judiciary, and a jurist from the Guardian Council will be the authorities responsible for the transition period following the death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Trump indicated that the ongoing military operation aims to overthrow the government in Tehran and stated that "intense bombing will continue throughout the week." He described this moment as "the greatest opportunity the Iranian people have ever had to reclaim their country."
Trump's gamble is that the Iranian population, weary of decades of repression and sanctions, will seize the opportunity presented by the chaos to rise up and overthrow the regime from within. It's a gamble with disastrous historical precedents.
In Iraq in 2003, the US also believed that by overthrowing Saddam Hussein, the people would build democracy. The result was 20 years of civil war, the rise of the Islamic State, and an Iraq that today orbits closer to Iran than to Washington. In Libya in 2011, the removal of Gaddafi left a failed state that has yet to recover. Afghanistan in 2021 speaks for itself.
The structural problem is that "changing a regime from the outside, with bombs, rarely produces the desired result." The death of a leader in a foreign attack tends to unite the population behind the regime, not fracture it.
Iran has already launched attacks against US military bases, against Israel and against targets in other Middle Eastern countries, shaking densely populated areas and affecting air travel and oil shipments.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the most powerful economic threat. But beyond that, Iran has the capacity to activate fronts in multiple countries:
The Houthis in Yemen remain an active force with long-range missiles capable of striking Israel and ships in the Red Sea. Hezbollah in Lebanon, though weakened, has not been eliminated. Shiite militias in Iraq have bases and sufficient weaponry to attack US troops. And in Syria, the Iranian presence could also be reactivated.
The US and Israel have decapitated the regime, but they haven't disarmed its tentacles. And those tentacles now have a martyr to avenge.
There are global actors watching this conflict with enormous attention and who can intervene in ways that completely change the game.
China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts it. Beijing has its own reasons to push for a resolution, but it may also decide to exploit the chaos to strengthen its position as an alternative power to the US in the Middle East, by offering mediation or economic support to Iran.
Russia, embroiled in Ukraine, watches as its strategic ally in the Middle East is attacked. It lacks the immediate capacity for military intervention, but can provide intelligence, weapons, and diplomatic support to Iran in the UN Security Council.
The Global South, for the most part, sees this conflict as a new episode of Western interventionism. The assassination of the leader of a sovereign state, however questionable his government may have been, is seen by dozens of countries as a violation of international law that sets a terrifying precedent.
Trump may celebrate Khamenei's death. But the real costs of this operation are only just beginning:
The "US military bases in the Gulf"—Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE—are under Iranian attack. Thousands of US soldiers are on the front lines in a war that Congress has not formally authorized.
Israel, which borders hostile countries, now faces a barrage of missiles without a partner with whom to negotiate a ceasefire. The Israeli civilian population is in shelters.
Oil prices have already surpassed alarm levels in the markets. A prolonged energy crisis would directly impact the US economy, just as Trump promised to lower prices.
And perhaps most importantly: "The US has no clear plan for the 'day after.' Trump stated that there are 'some good candidates' to lead Iran, but he did not mention names or mechanisms. Choosing who governs Tehran from Washington is not an option that the Iranian people, or the international community, will accept without resistance.
The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is undoubtedly the most impactful geopolitical event of the 21st century so far. The US and Israel achieved what seemed impossible: eliminating the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
But history teaches us that killing a leader doesn't kill a revolution, much less a state of 90 million people with a 2,500-year-old civilization. What lies ahead for Washington and Tel Aviv is possibly more complicated than the attack itself: they will have to face reprisals of unprecedented intensity, manage a power vacuum with unpredictable regional consequences, sustain a military operation without clear international support, and, above all, answer the question that no strategist has yet answered: "What comes next?"
Victory may very quickly be turning into a trap.
THERE IS NOTHING MORE EXCLUSIONARY THAN BEING POOR
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